why isn't he picking? the future of schaubtracker

This project began because Schaub made a simple promise, that for every big card he would be giving the audeince his picks for the main card and undercard, and tracking them in a contest with Chin and then co-host Nick Simmons. “This is gonna be as if I'm putting my own money on these fights,” said Brendon. “So I'm picking with my brain, not my heart." Interesting premise for an analyst of a sport he should be expert in.

That following card, UFC 327, went terribly. His picks went 4-6, including 2-3 on the main card, losing 30% if you had bet your own money on his picks.

The next big card, he doesn’t even pick the undercard. The whole premise of the first picks was the casuals, Nick and Chin, would only pick the main card, while he would also pick the prelims as the hardcore MMA analyst. He ends up going 5 for 5 though, including picking Strickland out of boredom to contrast Nick and Chin and to pick the racist white guy. That Strickland payout makes his earning look decent for the main cards before he floats down to earth though.

His next two main cards go horribly however, as they each return -23%. I will applaud him for picking prelims for the last one though. Overall at the moment, he’s down .1u or -.4%. If you include the vig of 4% he’s slightly ahead but not ahead of the market enough to beat that vig. So no edge.

And now it is the Friday before UFC 330. Brendan has spent hours talking about how zesty Ian Garry is, how he’s a cuck and vegan. He does not care for teh undercard and isn’t familiar enough with the fighters to even offer and opinion. He only has two picks for this card, which goes beyond the main-card-only laziness.

Since starting this project, Brendan has gone to four hours of MMA podcasting a week and yet he does less actual concrete fight analysis than four months ago. I’m getting a little frustrated with his project and I don’t see how his fans are not getting frustrated with his content. It’s empty.

I’ll probably keep it going through the end of the year to give people something to point at that just shows, hey, he’s bad, but he is just generally betting with the market which will lose you money, and you also can’t make money purely betting against his picks either.

Thanks for reading!

Big Brown has locked in his picks for UFC 330 this Saturday in Philadelphia. Here's where he's at:

Want to track how he does over time, see his reasoning, or check his historical record? Head to schaubtracker.com — we track every pick, every card, with timestamps linking back to exactly when he made the call on the Schaub Show.

Good luck this weekend.